Stay Safe-Allah Bless Egypt

**The WHO has declared the outbreak ****a pandemic**** and it has spread to more than 190 countries around the world**

**Total confirmed deaths: how rapidly have they increased ?**

**Do countries make progress on bringing down new deaths**

**Confirmed COVID-19 cases per million people**

Only on the basis of clearly presented and well-documented data can governments, organizations and individuals hope to respond appropriately to the COVID-19 pandemic in Egypt as well as the whole World. Thus, the goal of our work here is to present the daily published data and clarify what does it mean .

Data sources: __WHO__, __CDC__, __ECDC__, __NHC__, __DXY__, __1point3acres__, __Worldometers.info__, __BNO__, state and national government health departments, and local media reports.

The charts below show daily and total cases trends. Data is added, and charts updated, after the close of the day .

**Data Source:Announcement published by the Egyptian Ministry of Health and population**

The Percentage Growth Rate for the Daily confirmed new infected cases is the percentage od decrease or increase in the new cases announced daily. The formula used is

[(**every day's new cases ** / **new cases on the previous day) -1]%**.

**Data Source:Announcement published by the Egyptian Ministry of Health and population**

Growth factor is the factor by which a quantity multiplies itself over time. The formula used is **every day's new cases ** / **new cases on the previous day**. For example, a quantity growing by 5% every period (in this case daily) has a growth factor of 1.05.

A growth factor **above 1 indicates an increase**, whereas one which remains **between 0 and 1 it is a sign of decline**, with the quantity eventually becoming zero, whereas a growth factor constantly above 1 could signal exponential growth

**The coronavirus pandemic **is undoubtedly one of the greatest challenge that our world has faced in over a generation.one alternative to the commonly seen linear graph is A** logarithmic graph** which could help give a more detailed picture of the covid 19 outbreak in Egypt.

The most common form of a line-graph has a linear scale. Along the Y axis, the numbers progress in a steady, linear form – 1, 2, 3, 4, or 10, 20, 30 and so on.But infectious diseases don’t spread in an even, linear fashion. On a linear scale graph, the rate of growth keeps going up and up – the line can become almost vertical and appear to go on forever. That can create the impression measures like social distancing aren’t working.

**On a logarithmic scale**, numbers on the Y-axis don’t move up in equal increments but instead **each interval increases by a set factor** – it’s often 10 but could be a factor of 3 or 350 or 3,500, anything at all. It all depends on what is deemed to be the most effective way of interpreting the data in question.

**The logarithmic scale is ideal for measuring rates of change, particularly rates of growth.**

A logarithmic graph can also help make it clear if the apparent evening-out of the curve started to change. While a linear curve would keep on pushing ever higher regardless, the logarithmic graph would highlight any substantial changes to the trend – whether upward or downward.

It’s an approach that is often preferred when there are huge numbers involved and a linear scale would just produce a dramatic-looking exponential curve. you can see the point at which the rate of growth starts to level off when that exponential growth has stopped,although the overall numbers are still increasing.

sometimes if the curve is plotted linearly, it can be a skyrocketing curve,however,when it is Plotted by logarithmic scale, it transforms into a straight line — which means that deviations from the exponential spread of the virus become much easier to discern.

**At that point, the logarithmic scale makes it possible to see when public health measures are starting to have the desired effect.**

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By now, it is clear that covid-19 cases grew exponentially in the initial days. Every country has shown this trend, and it has become common to express a country’s viral growth rate in terms of the growth rate of another country a few days back.Not all exponential growth is the same, however, and the rate of growth has a huge bearing on how bad the problem is, as for example cases that would double every day could represent an alarming situation.

The doubling time in a disease outbreak is not constant and for the outbreak of COVID-19 it has changed in recent weeks and will continue to change with time.

- 131 countries and territories with 100+ cases. In most countries it took 20 days to reach 100
- 64 countries with 1,000+ cases. From 100 to 1,000 it took 9 days in most countries
- 19 countries with 10,000+ cases. From 1,000 to 10,000 it took 10 days in most countries
- 4 countries with 100,000+ cases. From 10,000 to 100,000 it took an average of 15 days in those countries

Reference and details can be found __h____ere: __https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic_cases

**for ****Egypt,**** cases from 100 to 200 almost took 4 days, from 100 to 1000 took almost 20 days, but from 1000 to double to 2000 it almost took an average of 7 days. one week later it exceeds 3000 , and it took 12 days to double again from 2000 to 4000. it took about 5 or 6 days to increase by 1000 from 2000 to 3000. but after 24 , it took 3 days only to exceed 4000, and about the same to exceed 6000.**

** So comparing Egypt with other countries , Egypt is doing well but the real problem is that those cases is the confirmed known cases , and the problem is is**** what about what is not known?**

When the relative growth rate (not the absolute growth rate) is constant, the quantity undergoes exponential growth and has a constant doubling time or period, which can be calculated directly from the growth rate

**The main priority of many nations right now is to move to a slower doubling time.** That’s what #FlattenTheCurve is about. Locked down areas, school closings, conference and sports event cancellations, washing hands, avoiding gatherings – all of this ensures slow doubling times, therefore less crowded hospitals and therefore a lower case fatality rate.

we can slow the virus’s spread enough, we can keep infections at a manageable level so hospitals won’t be overwhelmed.

A small downturn might feel like cold comfort , but it’s also a sign that the virus isn’t unstoppable — especially if companies and governments help keep people safe and (whenever possible) at home.

The chart above shows daily total Death trends. Data is added, and charts updated, after the close of the day.

**Data Source:Announcement published by the Egyptian Ministry of Health and population**

This chart is developed from the interactive dashboard provided by IBM and developed in the IBM's Cognos Analytics as a services provided to the public.

This chart shows two series. In blue the daily new confirmed deaths and in red the total sum of confirmed deaths.

**The case fatality rate (CFR) **– the ratio between confirmed deaths and cases.

This measure is sometimes called case fatality risk or case fatality ratio, or CFR

**The CFR for Egypt is shown in the figure above**

The CFR is very easy to calculate. You take the number of people who have died, and you divide it by the total number of people diagnosed with the disease. So if 20 people have died, and 100 people have been diagnosed with the disease, the CFR is [20 / 100], or 20%.

**The Crude Mortality Rate **– sometimes called the crude death rate – measures the probability that any individual in the population will die from the disease; not just those who are infected, or are confirmed as being infected. It’s calculated by dividing the number of deaths from the disease by the *total population*. For instance, if there were 10 deaths in a population of 1,000, the crude mortality rate would be [10 / 1,000], or 1%, even if only 100 people had been diagnosed with the disease.

In his opening remarks at the March 3 media briefing on Covid-19, WHO Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus stated:

“**Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died**. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected.”

- The current population of
**Egypt**is**101,893,306**as of Saturday, April 11, 2020, based on Worldometer elaboration of the latest United Nations data. - Egypt 2020 population is estimated at
**102,334,404**people at mid year according to UN data.

**The CMR for Egypt is still almost zero %**

It’s helpful to estimate the risk of death across a population – the average IFR, the chance of death if a random person in the country were to catch the disease.

How will we know the coronavirus epidemic is slowing? One of the least-biased measures is how long it takes for total deaths to double. “Doubling times” of longer than 3 days indicate that shelter-in-place is starting to work and/or someday the virus is spreading less efficiently.

between 21 march and 24 , it took about a week for it to double after that.

How long did it take for the number of **total confirmed** **deaths** **to double Now?**

**Egypt confirmed deaths now takes about 10 days to double.**

108,770 deaths

**108,770 people** have died so far from the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak as of April 12, 2020, 00:24 GMT.

The chart above shows daily total Recovered cases. Data is added, and charts updated, after the close of the day according to What's published by the Egyptian Ministry of Health and population

For COVID-19, early estimates of the basic reproduction number have it somewhere between 1.5 and 4. The infographic assumes a figure somewhere in the middle, at 2.5 infectious contacts per infectious individual.

If the reproduction number of a disease can be brought below one, then the spread will slow until the disease dies out. The revised infographic from below link shows the number of currently infected people. Reducing contact with others by 75% will bring the reproduction number below the critical level, allowing the number of infected people to decrease almost to zero in just two months.

However, the basic reproduction number of the current stage of the outbreak is way above one. This means that each newly infected person will pass on the disease to at least one more person, on average, and consequently the disease will take off exponentially.

https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-is-growing-exponentially-heres-what-that-really-means-134591

one of The main questions that is highly interesting now is :How much social distancing is required to flatten the curve enough to stop hospitals being overwhelmed? Is it enough to quarantine people who have been in contact with confirmed cases? Do we need widespread closure of events, schools and workplaces? Answers to these questions require mathematical modelling. We are still in the early stages of the COVID-19 outbreak and there is great uncertainty about the characteristics of this virus. To accurately forecast COVID-19’s growth, the underlying dynamics of transmission need to be determined. These are driven by factors including:

- How many people on average does an individual infect? (the “reproduction number” which, according to the World Health Organization, is currently between 1.4–2.5 people)
- How long until the onset of symptoms? (the “incubation period”, which is estimated to be 5.1 days)
- What proportion of transmission occurs prior to the onset of symptoms, if any?

As such data is collected and integrated into models over the coming months, we will be better placed to offer accurate predictions about the course of COVID-19.

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